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Consequence Modelling

Consequence Modelling

Consequence Modelling involves the determination of the impacts of process accidents involving hazardous materials on people, the environment and the process. The amount and form of hazardous material released is determined for toxic materials, flammables, and explosives (called the source term). The dispersion of the released material through and beyond the facility is then studied. The distance travelled and area covered are determined. For toxic materials, their effects on people and the environment are evaluated. For flammables, the impact of the heat radiation from a fire on people and equipment is calculated. For explosive materials, the impact of blast overpressures on people, equipment and structures are calculated.

Models tailored to each particular situation are used to evaluate consequences. Gas, two-phase, and liquid releases are modelled, and their discharge rates are calculated. Dispersion is modelled for buoyant or heavy gases, as appropriate, taking account of the range of atmospheric conditions possible at the time of release. Toxicity data and dose-response models are used to model toxic effects. Various types of fires are modelled including Pool, Jet, Flash, Fireball, and Warehouse Fires. Types of explosions modelled include confined, unconfined, and dust explosions as well as BLEVEs (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion), thermal decompositions, and runaway reactions.

Why Address Consequence Modelling?

Companies employ dispersion and consequence modelling for various purposes including determining impact distances for EPA's Risk Management Program (RMP) regulation, assessing the significance of hazard scenarios identified during PHA, and providing input to risk analysis. Reliance on purely qualitative analysis is insufficient where high consequence, low probability accidents are concerned since qualitative consequence estimates are subjective. Quantitative analysis provides a sounder basis for decision making when considering the tolerability of catastrophic accident consequences.

Why Periculum Global

Periculum Global is experienced in performing consequence modelling for a variety of facilities. We use models that cover a wide variety of situations.

Services Offered

  • Source term determination.
    We calculate the amount of hazardous material released in an accident and we provide a report that documents the results of the calculations.
  • Dispersion analysis.
    We calculate distances to various concentration endpoints for a released material and the area covered by the plume. We provide a report that documents the results of the calculations. Pool Fires, Jet Fires, Flash Fires, Vapour Cloud Explosion (VCE), Smoke and Toxic Gas Dispersion.
  • Consequence modelling.
    We determine the impacts of toxic material releases on people on and off-site as well as the environment, and the impact of fires and explosions on people and property. We provide a report that documents the results of the calculations.
  • Sensitivity, importance and uncertainty analysis.
    We determine the input variables to which the results of consequence modelling are most sensitive, and we determine which variables play the most important role in contributing to the results of the analysis. We also propagate uncertainties in the input variables through the analyses to determine the uncertainties in the calculated results. We provide a report that documents the calculations.

Consequence modelling can be used to inform:

  • COMAH Safety Reports,
  • Offsite impact analysis,
  • Emergency Response Plans (ERP),
  • Site layout and design - Occupied Building Risk Assessment (OBRA)